The answer in short, it seems, is “not very”. And that’s because modern societies are so massively reliant on two things: electricity and fossil fuels. Our dependence on electricity in particular and how vulnerable our delivery system for it is, is highlighted by a recent report from NAS. The New Scientist has a good article on it (see links below) and it outlines how a simple, big solar storm (similar to what has taken place before, and will take place again) could wreak havoc almost instantly. It’s best to just let the article speak for itself:
According to the NAS report, a severe space weather event in the US could induce ground currents that would knock out 300 key transformers within about 90 seconds, cutting off the power for more than 130 million people. From that moment, the clock is ticking for America.
First to go – immediately for some people – is drinkable water. Anyone living in a high-rise apartment, where water has to be pumped to reach them, would be cut off straight away. For the rest, drinking water will still come through the taps for maybe half a day. With no electricity to pump water from reservoirs, there is no more after that.
There is simply no electrically powered transport: no trains, underground or overground. Our just-in-time culture for delivery networks may represent the pinnacle of efficiency, but it means that supermarket shelves would empty very quickly – delivery trucks could only keep running until their tanks ran out of fuel, and there is no electricity to pump any more from the underground tanks at filling stations.
Back-up generators would run at pivotal sites – but only until their fuel ran out. For hospitals, that would mean about 72 hours of running a bare-bones, essential care only, service. After that, no more modern healthcare.
The truly shocking finding is that this whole situation would not improve for months, maybe years: melted transformer hubs cannot be repaired, only replaced. “From the surveys I’ve done, you might have a few spare transformers around, but installing a new one takes a well-trained crew a week or more,” says Kappenman. “A major electrical utility might have one suitably trained crew, maybe two.”
Within a month, then, the handful of spare transformers would be used up. The rest will have to be built to order, something that can take up to 12 months.
Even when some systems are capable of receiving power again, there is no guarantee there will be any to deliver. Almost all natural gas and fuel pipelines require electricity to operate. Coal-fired power stations usually keep reserves to last 30 days, but with no transport systems running to bring more fuel, there will be no electricity in the second month.
Read the article and the report for more. But all this provides some serious food for thought; isn’t a society that could collapse within days or weeks just a little bit too reliant on electricity? Shouldn’t we be better prepared for events like these?
You bet – and I bet we aren’t even thinking about it in the right places.
Resources / further reading
- New Scientist article: Space storm alert: 90 seconds from catastrophe
- Space Studies Board of National Academy of Sciences (NAS): Severe Space Weather Events–Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts (read online for free!)
- A semi-related book: Electric Universe (my review here)
