Some results from a 10-year study by Dr Vini Khurana, a respectable neurosurgeon, point to evidence that using mobile phones for over 10 years is a significant cancer risk. The most-often quoted article on this is the one at The Independent with a very alarming subject: “Mobile phones ‘more dangerous than smoking’”. Right, well, that ought to catch ones attention. And it sure caught the attention of the media; one Finnish example here.
Certainly it’s quite alarming if the results of his studies are verified. Considering it comes from a respectable source (I’m referring to the scientist here, not the Independent), I don’t think the results can be outright dismissed – but on the other hand, let’s wait until the results are peer-reviewed and actually published somewhere. But wait, what exactly did the study say? We won’t know for sure until it’s published somewhere, but from what I can tell, the key result of the study supposedly is that using cellphones can “double the risk of brain cancer”. So how does that compare with the punchline given to these results – “more dangerous than smoking”? It turns out saying that is very misleading indeed.
Let’s assume cellphones double brain cancer risk. And let’s do the numbers in order to put things into their proper perspective; figures below are based on US numbers as those were most readily available.
- Each year about 438,000 people in the United States die from illnesses related to cigarette smoking. (Source: American Cancer Society)
- Approximately 17,000 people in the United States are diagnosed with primary [brain] cancer each year and nearly 13,000 die of the disease. (Source: Oncology Channel)
Now, double the 13,000 brain cancer fatalities and you end up with 26,000 brain cancer fatalities every year. That is still a far cry from the 400,000+ that smoking kills.. So EVEN if cellphones double the brain cancer risk, smoking still trumps cellphones in terms of lethality by more than an order of magnitude. Double the brain cancer risk definitely can be called a Very Bad Thing, but compared to smoking? It’s nothing.
Update: You can find the 69-page report from http://www.brain-surgery.us/mobilephone.html and some more media links, including a radio interview as an mp3, from http://www.brain-surgery.net.au/media.html
March 31st, 2008 at 18:13
Interesting. I hate statistics! Why? Because anybody can take the statement “more dangerous than smoking” and interpret it on their own terms, coming up with any number of conclusions based on this silly half-sentence. Indeed, one way to interpret this is “kills more people than smoking” which given your other statistics, seems like a misleading statement.
But what about the fallibility of the other statistics you quoted? You are comparing “the number of people diagnosed with brain cancer per year” (actually the death count associated with this) to another vague statement by the ACS: “illnesses related to cigarette smoking.”
Just comparing the sources of information on these two statements reveals a bias; the Oncology Channel does not benefit from “boosting” their brain cancer death count; however, the American Cancer Society is actively working towards cancer prevention, producing statistics that they hope will discourage people from engaging in cancerous activities. The scope of “smoking related illnesses” could include such diseases as artherosclerosis, which can also be caused by poor eating habits and sedentary lifestyle.
March 31st, 2008 at 20:33
Excellent points, thanks.
Adding to the difficulty is the fact that smoking indeed can cause (and causes) a number of health problems with apparently the ill-effects of cellphones are limited to brain tumors.
But you’re right, statistics and biases complicates things for sure. Still, I think branding cellphones “worse than smoking” just because they double the brain tumor risk is iffy at best.